The Bank of Canada Couldn’t Pull Off a Dovish Hike

The Bank of Canada cautioned the economy would still need stimulative interest rates even as it raised rates for the third time since July on Wednesday.

But that seemingly dovish language was insufficient to alter traders’ projected timetable of the central bank’s tightening cycle. The Canadian overnight index swaps curve shows no meaningful shift in how much and fast the central bank will lift its policy rate over the next five years.

Before its 10 a.m. decision on Wednesday in Ottawa, the Bank of Canada was expected to deliver 46 basis points of tightening this year by its April meeting and 84 basis points for all of 2018. As of 2:30 p.m., market-implied tightening over those periods stood at 46 basis points and 83 basis points.

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